I had the chance to talk to Boston Globe writer, Alex Speier. Mr. Speier has been covering the Sox for the Globe since 2015, as well as for WEEI and the Herald prior to that. We talked about the future of some key Sox players and how Chaim Bloom is putting together the farm system. From an in-depth look into Alex Verdugo’s season, to what the Sox will do at the trade deadline, here is everything I learned from Mr. Speier.
Jonathan Traub: With the recent resurgence of Jarren Duran, do you think he should be an everyday player, and if so, whose spot in the lineup should get taken?
Alex Speier: Yeah, I think that he’s at a point where he needs to be given a run to at least play against every right-handed pitcher. I also think it is important to see what he can be against lefties so that we can have more clarity about his role going forward. The real question is whether Duran and Duvall can coexist in the lineup. While I think that is an open question, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Red Sox traded Duvall. Not only because Duran is doing some pretty special things, but because Duvall is only under contract until the end of this season. The bottom line is that the Red Sox have looked their best when Duran is contributing.
Jonathan Traub: So obviously, Kenley Jansen was the lone Red Sox player represented in the All-Star game. Do you think that Alex Verdugo should have been an All-Star?
Alex Speier: I think that decision could have gone either way, depending on what you prioritize. He’s been a good two-way contributor for the Red Sox this year, even with limited power. The defense has been good, even though I do think that gets a little exaggerated for Red Sox right fielders because the amount of area that they have available allows for a distortion in their defensive stats. If you look at FanGraphs, for instance, I believe that they have him 18th in WAR among AL position players. I think that you’re looking at a very good season. Not a transcendent season where it’s like “Oh my gosh, I can’t believe that snub.” He would have been a worthy selection, but his exclusion wasn’t an embarrassment.
Jonathan Traub: I’m sure you remember last year, the Red Sox started the second half by getting swept by the Blue Jays at Fenway. Obviously, they lost the first game of that series, 28-5. This year, the Sox will open up their second half in Chicago and then head to Oakland for three against the A’s. How important is it for this team to start the second half well against some below .500 opponents?
Alex Speier: The performance over the next couple of weeks has massive sway over what the team does at the trade deadline. Right now they’re a last-place team. A very good last-place team, but nevertheless a last-place team. The question is how realistic is it for them to be anything other than a last place team. While the division feels like a foregone conclusion, the way that this team starts the second half will go a long way for their wild-card aspirations.
Jonathan Traub: Of late, we have seen signs of Rafael Devers looking more like himself. In July, he’s hitting .333 with a 160 wRC+. So what have you noticed from Rafy of late and what do you expect from him in the second half?
Alex Speier: I would expect a more consistent top-level hitter than what we’ve seen to this point. For a while, it looked like he was really caught in between. I think that he was in his head about the decrease in fastball usage against him. So, as a result, it seemed a lot of the time he was late on fastballs, which is not the Rafael Devers we know. This is one of the few guys in the MLB with multiple home runs against 100+ MPH fastballs. Of course, we are seeing him walk more. However, Devers will tell you that walks are not a good indicator of him being locked in. I think you’re just seeing him making subtle improvements with his timing. As one of the guys with the greatest line-to-line power in all of baseball, his willingness to stay back and drive pitches the opposite way is really important. And once that happens, I think it will really all open up for him.
Jonathan Traub: At the beginning of the season it looked like the Red Sox were trying to make Kiké Hernandez one of the faces of their franchise. However, to this point, he has had an abysmal season. Now, on Fangraphs, he’s last in WAR. What do you think? Do you think that Kiké still has a spot on this team, or do you think he should be dealt or DFA’d?
Alex Speier: I think that there’s still an opportunity for him to be on the team. His versatility obviously has considerable value. Although, if he can no longer be a consideration at shortstop, then you start whittling down that versatility. Maybe the Red Sox trade Duvall and Kiké ends up being the right-handed complement to Duran, as well as an option at second base when they’re going to be reintegrating Trevor Story, who in August, probably won’t be a seven-day-a-week guy. There’s certainly still a possible role for Hernandez, however, he has to start being a better hitter for that to be viable. The Red Sox need him to be more than just a glove with no offensive contributions.
Jonathan Traub: So at different points during this season, we’ve seen a number of Red Sox starters look really good. Unfortunately, three Red Sox starters are on the IL. How good do you think a fully healthy rotation of Paxton, Bello, Sale, Whitlock, and Houlk is?
Alex Speier: Fully healthy it would be really, really good. You would probably take your chances rolling into October with a group like that. But the problem is that you have no guarantees that particularly that top three triumvirate will ever be healthy in a reliable fashion. I think that what they’ve seen from Bello is remarkable. I think that that’s certainly the most encouraging development for them in terms of a pitching standpoint in more than a decade. Paxton has been terrific, whether or not he’s able to sustain this elite form is unknown. I think that with Sale, you’re arriving at a point where you have to expect that it’s more likely than not that he can’t remain healthy, and that any contributions that he’s able to make are kind of found money. There have been flashes of potential for Whitlock as a starter, but there’s no evidence that he can be a healthy starter. And with Houlk, he’s actually been the one who has shown the greatest ability to remain healthy, however, this year he was performing at the level you would expect from a guy at the backend of a rotation.
Jonathan Traub: Obviously the Red Sox have a decision to make as to whether they will be buyers or sellers. What do you think? Do you think they should be buyers? And if so, who should they buy? And if they’re sellers, who do you think they should sell?
Alex Speier: I don’t think that they’re at the point where they can answer that question yet. If they lose 10 of the next 12, then you clearly go into sell mode. That would mean definitely dealing Paxton, and opening the door on potentially trading Justin Turner. You would have to consider dealing everybody under contract only through this season, and maybe even guys under contract only through next season. I think that either way, they need to upgrade their rotation for the long term. I think that they’re at a point where their position player development has gotten to be pretty good, but it’s time for them to add more behind Bello that offers greater certainty. Even if they want to keep exploring what they have in Whitlcok, Crawford, and Houlk, they still need to keep adding because the starting pitching in the upper levels of their farm system isn’t great. So no matter what they do at the trade deadline, they need to try and improve their long-term rotation outlook.
Jonathan Traub: Where do you stand on the development of Chaim Bloom’s farm system?
Alex Speier: It’s unsurprising that it is a position player-heavy farm system given that’s where they’ve spent almost all of their draft capital since Bloom became GM. I would characterize Bryan Bello as one of the scouting triumphs of Eddie Romero and the international team, and while his signing occurred under Dave Dombrowski, his development has occurred largely under Chaim Bloom. I would say that you have a farm system that has shown clear improvement, that is helping a number of good prospects become better prospects. You’re seeing a steadier yield of major league pitchers, not necessarily starters, come up through the farm system and become contributors. Those are guys like Cutter Crawford, John Schreiber, and Josh Winkowski. I think that the farm system has solidified their floor. In the next year or two, we’re going to find out to what degree the farm system’s improvements will alter the ceiling of the Red Sox.
Sox Watch 